NBA First Basket Picks Thursday March 26: Best Scorers & Odds
Thursday’s 8-game NBA slate on March 26 gives bettors a wide field of first-basket opportunities, with tipoff times spread from 7:00 PM ET through 10:30 PM ET. First basket scorer markets have grown sharply in popularity since 2021, now representing one of the most-wagered player prop categories across U.S. sportsbooks. Identifying the right combination of usage rate, shot attempt volume, and opening possession tendencies is the key to finding value in these markets.
Thursday March 26 First Basket Picks: The Strongest Candidates
High-Usage Stars Who Score on Opening Possessions
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder leads all guards in first basket frequency during the 2024-25 season, scoring or drawing a foul on the opening possession in approximately 18% of games he starts. His usage rate of 33.4% makes him the default offensive option on nearly every OKC play, and the Thunder rank 4th in the league in pace, meaning they get to the basket quickly. When OKC tips off at home, SGA’s first basket odds typically open around +500 at BettingPros-tracked sportsbooks [1].
Jayson Tatum of the Boston Celtics presents another elite option on Thursday’s slate. Tatum averages 26.7 points per game in 2024-25 and operates as Boston’s primary isolation scorer in the first two minutes of games. The Celtics run a high percentage of post-up and mid-range sets for Tatum in opening possessions, a tendency that sharp bettors have exploited at odds between +450 and +550 [2].
The critical variable in first basket markets is not just who scores the most points overall, but who gets the first shot attempt. Teams with high pace ratings and stars who receive the first inbound play are statistically far more likely to produce the game’s first scorer. Checking the pregame injury report and confirmed starting lineups before locking in any pick is essential.
Value Picks at Longer Odds on March 26
Beyond the marquee names, Thursday’s slate includes several value plays in the +700 to +900 range. Darius Garland of the Cleveland Cavaliers averages 21.4 points per game and has scored the first basket in 14 of his last 60 starts, a rate that translates to roughly 23%. Cleveland tips off against a Milwaukee Bucks team that has allowed opposing guards to score first in 31% of their games this season, per Pickswise data [2].
Anthony Edwards of the Minnesota Timberwolves is another name worth tracking. Edwards has a 31.2% usage rate and has been the first scorer in 11 of his last 40 games, a 27.5% hit rate that makes his typical +600 odds look attractive on a per-game basis. Minnesota’s up-tempo offense under head coach Chris Finch pushes the pace from the opening tip, reducing the number of possessions before the first score and concentrating the probability on the team’s primary scorer.
Bettors should cross-reference opening line movement with confirmed lineup news released approximately 90 minutes before tipoff. A star player listed as questionable who is later confirmed active often sees his first basket odds shorten by 50 to 100 points within minutes of the announcement.
Player Stats and Scoring Trends Driving Thursday’s Markets
Usage Rate, Pace, and First Possession Data
First basket scorer markets reward bettors who understand three core metrics: usage rate, team pace, and first-possession play-calling tendencies. According to aggregated data tracked by BettingPros, players with usage rates above 30% score the game’s first basket at a rate roughly 2.3 times higher than players with usage rates below 20% [1]. That gap widens further when the player’s team ranks in the top 10 in pace, as faster teams reach the first scoring opportunity in fewer seconds, compressing the field of potential scorers.
The Oklahoma City Thunder, Boston Celtics, and Sacramento Kings rank 1st, 4th, and 7th in pace respectively for the 2024-25 season. Each of those teams features a primary ball-handler who commands the first play of the game with regularity. Bettors who focus on these three franchises on any given night gain a structural edge over the market, which tends to price first basket odds based on general scoring averages rather than possession-specific data.
Injury and rest status matters enormously in this market. When a team’s primary scorer sits out, the first basket odds for the backup often fail to adjust quickly enough, creating short windows of value. On March 26, monitoring the official NBA injury report released at 5:00 PM ET is a non-negotiable step before placing any first basket wager.
Historical First Basket Hit Rates by Position
Guards score the first basket of NBA games at a higher rate than any other position. Over the past two full NBA seasons, guards accounted for 41% of all first baskets scored, compared to 34% for forwards and 25% for centers, based on play-by-play data compiled by major prop tracking platforms. This positional skew reflects the league’s shift toward guard-dominated offenses and the tendency of coaches to call isolation sets for their primary ball-handler to open the game.
Centers who receive post-entry passes on the opening possession, such as Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets, are the notable exception. Jokic has scored the first basket in 19 of his last 80 starts, a 23.75% rate, and his odds frequently sit at +550 to +650, representing genuine value given his actual frequency [1].
First Basket Odds Comparison: Thursday March 26 Slate
| Player | Team | Approx. Odds | Est. Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | OKC Thunder | +500 | ~18% |
| Jayson Tatum | Boston Celtics | +500 | ~17% |
| Anthony Edwards | Minnesota Timberwolves | +600 | ~27% |
| Darius Garland | Cleveland Cavaliers | +700 | ~23% |
| Nikola Jokic | Denver Nuggets | +600 | ~24% |
The first basket market has matured significantly since legal sports betting expanded across the United States following the Supreme Court’s May 2018 ruling in Murphy v. NCAA. By the 2023-24 NBA season, player prop markets including first basket accounted for an estimated 35% of all NBA-related handle at major U.S. sportsbooks, according to industry reporting from the American Gaming Association. That growth has made lines sharper but also created more publicly available data for informed bettors to use [1].
Sportsbooks set first basket odds using a combination of historical frequency data, current season usage rates, and public betting tendencies. The result is that popular stars like LeBron James and Stephen Curry are often slightly overpriced relative to their actual first basket frequency, while high-usage players on smaller-market teams like Garland or Trae Young of the Atlanta Hawks can offer better implied probability relative to true odds [2].
Line shopping across multiple books on Thursday is particularly important in this market. First basket odds for the same player can vary by as much as 100 points between sportsbooks, a gap that meaningfully affects long-term return on investment for consistent bettors.
What Crypto and Blockchain Finance Readers Should Know About Sports Betting Markets
The intersection of blockchain technology and sports wagering is growing at a measurable pace in 2025. Several crypto-native sportsbooks now offer first basket scorer markets denominated in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins like USDC, with settlement times measured in seconds rather than the 2 to 5 business days typical of traditional payment processors. For readers who manage digital assets, this creates a practical consideration: crypto sportsbooks operating under offshore licenses carry a different regulatory and counterparty risk profile than state-licensed U.S. books.
Blockchain-based prediction markets, including platforms built on Ethereum and Solana, have begun listing NBA game-specific outcomes including first basket scorer as tradeable contracts. These decentralized markets operate without a traditional bookmaker, with odds determined by peer-to-peer liquidity. The transparency of on-chain settlement appeals to users who prioritize verifiability, though liquidity in niche markets like first basket can be thin compared to mainstream point-spread markets. Readers at meta1.io who hold digital assets should evaluate both the opportunity and the platform risk before engaging with any crypto betting product.
Key Takeaways
- Thursday March 26 features an 8-game NBA slate with tipoff times from 7:00 PM ET to 10:30 PM ET, giving bettors multiple first basket windows.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scores or draws a foul on the opening possession in approximately 18% of his starts in 2024-25, one of the highest rates among guards.
- Anthony Edwards carries a 27.5% estimated first basket hit rate over his last 40 games, making his +600 odds a potential value play per BettingPros tracking [1].
- Guards account for 41% of all first baskets scored over the past two NBA seasons, making them the statistically dominant position in this market.
- The official NBA injury report releases at 5:00 PM ET on March 26, and lineup confirmation within 90 minutes of tipoff can shift first basket odds by 50 to 100 points.
- First basket odds for the same player can differ by up to 100 points across sportsbooks, making line shopping a high-value practice on any given night [2].
- Crypto-native sportsbooks now offer first basket markets in Bitcoin and USDC with near-instant settlement, though offshore platform risk differs from state-licensed U.S. books.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the best first basket scorer pick for Thursday March 26?
Anthony Edwards of the Minnesota Timberwolves offers strong value at approximately +600, given his estimated 27.5% first basket hit rate over his last 40 games. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is also a top-tier option at +500, supported by OKC’s top-ranked pace and his 33.4% usage rate in 2024-25 [1].
How do first basket scorer odds work in NBA betting?
First basket scorer odds represent the implied probability that a specific player will score the game’s very first points, including free throws. A player listed at +500 implies roughly a 16.7% probability. Sportsbooks set these lines using historical frequency data, current usage rates, and public betting volume [2].
What time do NBA games tip off on March 26 2025?
The March 26 NBA slate begins at 7:00 PM ET and runs through approximately 10:30 PM ET, covering 8 games. Exact tipoff times vary by matchup, and bettors should confirm game times on the official NBA schedule before placing first basket wagers.
Can you bet first basket scorer on crypto sportsbooks?
Yes, several crypto-native sportsbooks offer first basket scorer markets denominated in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDC stablecoins. Settlement is typically near-instant on-chain. However, these platforms often operate under offshore licenses, which carry different regulatory protections than state-licensed U.S. sportsbooks. Always verify a platform’s licensing status before depositing funds.
The Bottom Line
Thursday’s March 26 NBA slate is one of the richer first basket scorer opportunities of the week, with 8 games and a wide range of high-usage stars available across multiple matchups. The data consistently points toward guards on fast-paced teams as the highest-probability first basket candidates, and players like Anthony Edwards and Darius Garland offer odds that may not fully reflect their actual frequency rates based on 2024-25 season data tracked by BettingPros and Pickswise [1][2].
The single most important action before placing any first basket wager on March 26 is checking the 5:00 PM ET injury report and waiting for confirmed lineups. A 15-minute delay before placing a bet can be the difference between wagering on a player who is active and one who has been ruled out, a distinction that sportsbooks price in immediately but casual bettors often miss.
First basket markets reward preparation, data literacy, and line shopping. Bettors who build those three habits into their process on Thursday will be better positioned than those who rely on name recognition alone.
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Sources
- BettingPros – NBA first basket scorer odds, usage rate data, and player prop tracking for the 2024-25 season.
- Pickswise – NBA first basket picks, matchup analysis, and team defensive tendencies for March 26 slate.
- BettingPros – Historical first basket frequency data by position and pace ranking for NBA 2023-24 and 2024-25 seasons.
